Read the board, judge the price, size the bet, keep score. 8 slides · 7.5 min
What it does
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver BroncosLos Angeles Rams58%A real game, Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos, its moneyline as it read on Sep 23 at 9:38 AM ET. Not a live price.
Reading the board
| Team | ML | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| price · win prob | line · price · win prob | line · price · win prob | |
| Detroit Lions | +17034.0% | +3.5-11545.5% | O 44.5-11042.1% |
| Minnesota Vikings | -20066.0% | -3.5-10554.5% | U 44.5-11057.9% |
An example card with illustrative prices, not a real pick.
A real card, New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams, as it read on Sep 21 at 2:25 PM ET.
No edge on the board. None of the upcoming NFL games clear our bar. Our numbers sit at the market's.Our numbers sit at the market's.
Want a side? Start here. The board's most likely NFL outcomes, with our chance next to what the price says, so you know exactly what you're paying for.
Los Angeles RamsNew York Giants @ Los Angeles RamsNYG @ LAR74%chance to winbreak-even 74%-278 CS · best price-285 DKEV -0.6%- 2
Kansas City Chiefs72%EV -1.2%vs IND-258 CS-265 DK
The real NFL board as it read on Sep 20 at 1:25 PM ET, a day no NFL market was graded, drawn as today's app prints such a day.
Best Bets
The side most likely to hit in every market, ranked for hitting at your Standard risk setting. Not a call on edge. How this works
Los Angeles RamsNew York Giants @ Los Angeles RamsNYG @ LAR74%chance to winbreak-even 74%-278 CS · best price-285 DKEV -0.6%
Miami Dolphins+13.5Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ersMIA @ SF51%chance to coverbreak-even 52%-105 HR · best price-110 DKEV -2.4%
Under46.5Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsIND @ KC52%chance underbreak-even 54%-110 BR · best price-118 DKEV -4.7%
Under44.5BETDET @ MIN58%-110 DK+10.5% edgeThe real NFL Best Bets as they read on Sep 20 at 1:25 PM ET, at the Standard risk setting, your book DraftKings; the graded row under them is an example, not a real pick.
The price sets the bar
100 bets at −300 · 70% winners
Expected value · per $100 staked
Los Angeles Rams 74%books’ number-285 DKEV -0.6%The first readout is the example card from slide 2, not a real pick; the second is the real NFL Best Bets lead of Sep 20 at 1:25 PM ET.
The grade
Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions @ Minnesota VikingsDET @ MIN65%chance to winbreak-even 67%-200 DK · best priceEV -2.8%An example game, Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, with illustrative prices: not a real pick. Its calls are the app's own for those prices.
What LEAN means: the line the app prints under a LEAN call, in its own words. A definition, not a call on this game.
A DEFER line in the app's own words; an example, not a real pick.
| Signal | Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Rams | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Square (sportsbooks) | 43.7% | 56.3% | 51% |
| Sharp (our model) | 38.5% | 61.5% | 34% |
| Crowd · Polymarket | 43.5% | 56.5% | 15% |
| Consensus blend | 41.9% | 58.1% |
A real game, Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos, its moneyline sources as they read on Sep 23 at 9:38 AM ET. Not a live price.
Your book, your stake
Place on FanDuel−112best
DraftKingsDK−110best
theScore BetSCORE−113best
CaesarsCZR−114best
BetMGMMGM−115bestAn example pick: the over/under from the example game on the slides before, Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, NFL, with typed prices at five books and the app’s own call and stake. Shown when today’s pick cannot load; not live.
The other books row is from the example game, not this pick: this pick has no book to open.
Same line · two prices
Best priceDraftKings−110+10.5% EVYour bookFanDuel−112+9.6% EVOur 57.9% on the same side, Under 44.5 at both
Suggested stake · sized to the edge
Bankroll $1,000 · 1u = $10
Same price, −110
Ten losses in a row at 0.9u: −$90, 9% of the bankroll
Worked examples with illustrative prices, through the app’s own price and stake functions.