Hedge-fund-grade analysis. Your decision. Consensus Edge is a quant engine built on the same kind of data, models and discipline hedge funds use, applied to sports, prediction markets and soon stocks. It shows you what's most likely, whether the price is worth taking, and when to pass.
Bet $100 a game — the way almost everyone actually bets — on heavy favourites at −300, and win 60% of them. That is the number tout services advertise:
| 60 wins | × $33 | +$2,000 |
| 40 losses | × $100 | −$4,000 |
| Net | −$2,000 |
Advertised 60% winners. Down two thousand dollars.
Give them 70% — ten points better than they advertise, and better than almost anyone truly sustains — and it is still −$667. The bar at −300 is 75%. Almost nobody clears it.
Now the other direction — same $100 a game, on +150 underdogs, winning far less often:
| 45 wins | × $150 | +$6,750 |
| 55 losses | × $100 | −$5,500 |
| Net | +$1,250 |
A 45% record. Up twelve hundred and fifty.
Nothing changed but the price. That is the whole idea:
| If you take… | you break even at |
|---|---|
| +150 — an underdog | 40.0% |
| −110 — a standard spread or over/under | 52.4% |
| −200 | 66.7% |
| −300 — a heavy favourite | 75.0% |
Tout services lean on favourites because favourites win often, and a big win rate is what sells. The price is what decides whether it pays.
Ask any tout service for its profit, not its win rate.
Blended win rate —, against a break-even of — for the prices we actually took.
Profit per $100 staked: —
Closing line value: — per pick, on average
— from — priced in the last 30 days.
reading the live record…