Brier and calibration buckets for the tennis pipeline. Pinnacle pre-match
no-vig P(player_a) is the anchor; outcome from tennis_in_play_match_meta
(only outcome_type='completed' included — retirements/walkovers excluded
from headline per finalizer convention).
Rolling Brier: 0.1959
|
Uniform baseline: 0.2500
N settled = 1889
Live coverage — same-day withdrawal gate
Tour-asymmetric by design. Disclosed honestly so users can size accordingly.
Tennis live-coverage withdrawal-gate status by tour.
Tour
Source
Status
Notes
Withdrawals last 7d
WTA
api.wtatennis.com (official Pulselive)
live
—
0
ATP
api.atptour.com
blocked
No live feed: the ATP site blocks automated access.
ATP coverage gap. ATP picks have NO live same-day withdrawal coverage. Chronic injury history still applies. Apply tighter sizing on ATP favorites during Slam first weeks.
We don't work around a site's bot protection.
Closing the gap needs a licensed tennis data feed, or official access like the WTA's.
Acceptance gate
✓ N=1889 ≥ N=40 per-bucket target
for the bucketed Brier check.
Calibration buckets (5pp bands)
Tennis calibration by predicted-probability bucket.
Bucket
N
Predicted mean
Actual rate
Gap (pp)
Tripwire
0.00 – 0.05
6
0.039
0.000
-3.9pp
● ok
0.05 – 0.10
38
0.077
0.132
+5.4pp
● watch
0.10 – 0.15
59
0.126
0.034
-9.2pp
● watch
0.15 – 0.20
68
0.175
0.191
+1.6pp
● ok
0.20 – 0.25
86
0.225
0.198
-2.7pp
● ok
0.25 – 0.30
114
0.273
0.219
-5.4pp
● watch
0.30 – 0.35
131
0.325
0.313
-1.2pp
● ok
0.35 – 0.40
128
0.375
0.414
+3.9pp
● ok
0.40 – 0.45
155
0.425
0.400
-2.5pp
● ok
0.45 – 0.50
115
0.477
0.461
-1.6pp
● ok
0.50 – 0.55
131
0.527
0.496
-3.1pp
● ok
0.55 – 0.60
162
0.575
0.519
-5.6pp
● watch
0.60 – 0.65
144
0.623
0.625
+0.2pp
● ok
0.65 – 0.70
122
0.674
0.656
-1.8pp
● ok
0.70 – 0.75
119
0.724
0.714
-1.0pp
● ok
0.75 – 0.80
109
0.774
0.761
-1.3pp
● ok
0.80 – 0.85
77
0.827
0.883
+5.6pp
● watch
0.85 – 0.90
72
0.870
0.917
+4.7pp
● ok
0.90 – 0.95
43
0.926
0.977
+5.1pp
● watch
0.95 – 1.00
10
0.969
1.000
+3.1pp
● ok
Buckets shown only when N ≥ 5. Tripwire (tennis-expert 2026-05-24 lock):
green <5pp | yellow 5-10pp or thin-N | red ≥10pp at N≥30 (action: hand to
win-rate-optimizer).
ATP / WTA tour-parity audit
Tennis ATP/WTA tour-parity coverage audit.
Tour
N total
N settled
N with anchor
Settlement %
Anchor %
ATP
1017
892
1008
87.7%
99.1%
WTA
1118
1008
1111
90.2%
99.4%
Parity gap (ATP − WTA)
-101
—
—
-2.5pp
-0.3pp
Per audit competitive-advantage #9: WTA parity is a user-acquisition advantage. ATP-side bias greater than 5pp on
settlement or anchor rates flagged in red.
Recent settled matches
Recent settled tennis matches with model probability and result.
Variance disclosure: tennis is best-of-3 single-match noisy. Brier reads
meaningful at N≥200 across surface×tour-level segments per acceptance
framework. Pre-RG numbers are preliminary.