Experts vs the closing line
Ranked by price vs. the closing line, discounted for small samples. Records over a few dozen picks are mostly luck.
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. Everyone with at least two priced picks is ranked by price CLV, discounted for small samples (the mean times n / (n + 30)), our own row included. An expert's status reads Building sample until there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; only then can their record change how much they move our number. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| # | Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 834 | 412-400-22 | +2.6% | +1.4pp (n=241) | 52% | n/a | Beating the close. Above our target, on a sample too small to call that settled. | n/a | Oct 18 | |
| 2 | Andy Schooler | Sporting Life | 3 | 2-1-0 | +33.3% | +2.1pp (n=3) | 100% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | trend 33%, other 33% | Oct 7 |
| 3 | Brad Powers | Covers | 30 | 15-15-0 | -2.8% | +0.3pp (n=12) | 67% | -0.14 pts | Building sample (n = 30) | matchup 27%, numbers_model 22% | Oct 17 |
| 4 | Jake Osgathorpe | Sporting Life | 2 | 2-0-0 | +95.2% | +1.2pp (n=2) | 100% | n/a | Building sample (n = 2) | trend 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 12 |
| 5 | Chris Farley | Pickswise | 16 | 9-7-0 | +8.6% | -0.5pp (n=5) | 20% | +0.31 pts | Building sample (n = 16) | matchup 32%, injury 18% | Oct 14 |
| 6 | Brandon Anderson | Action Network | 15 | 9-6-0 | +7.8% | -1.2pp (n=4) | 25% | +0.50 pts | Building sample (n = 15) | trend 24%, line_value 19% | Oct 17 |
| 7 | Chris Vasile | Covers | 32 | 20-12-0 | +26.0% | -0.4pp (n=21) | 43% | n/a | Building sample (n = 32) | matchup 47%, trend 19% | Oct 19 |
| 8 | Neil Parker | Covers | 17 | 9-8-0 | +2.8% | -0.9pp (n=7) | 14% | +0.15 pts | Building sample (n = 17) | numbers_model 37%, matchup 26% | Oct 20 |
| 9 | Jon Metler | Covers | 2 | 0-2-0 | -100.0% | -3.2pp (n=2) | 0% | n/a | Building sample (n = 2) | matchup 40%, injury 40% | Oct 20 |
| 10 | Jason Logan | Covers | 74 | 40-34-0 | -0.3% | -0.4pp (n=38) | 39% | +0.53 pts | Behind the close on average; the range still includes zero. | matchup 33%, injury 19% | Oct 19 |
| 11 | Collin Wilson | Action Network | 28 | 13-15-0 | -19.0% | -1.3pp (n=7) | 0% | -0.24 pts | Building sample (n = 28) | matchup 36%, numbers_model 32% | Oct 17 |
| 12 | Mike Spector | Sportsbook Review | 16 | 10-6-0 | +19.4% | -1.3pp (n=15) | 13% | +0.12 pts | Building sample (n = 16) | matchup 34%, trend 32% | Oct 19 |
| 13 | Vaughn Dalzell | NBC Sports | 14 | 6-8-0 | -19.5% | -3.0pp (n=5) | 0% | +0.30 pts | Building sample (n = 14) | matchup 40%, trend 28% | Oct 20 |
| 14 | Mark Lammey | Pickswise | 52 | 29-21-2 | +8.2% | -1.5pp (n=14) | 36% | +0.21 pts | Building sample (n = 52) | matchup 36%, trend 28% | Oct 20 |
| 15 | Nick Griffith | Action Network | 27 | 19-8-0 | +31.6% | -2.8pp (n=7) | 0% | +0.11 pts | Building sample (n = 27) | matchup 28%, injury 19% | Oct 19 |
| 16 | Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | 51 | 27-22-2 | +3.5% | -1.8pp (n=21) | 14% | +0.72 pts | Building sample (n = 51) | matchup 30%, numbers_model 25% | Oct 20 |
| 17 | Danny Howard | Covers | 10 | 9-1-0 | +32.0% | -3.7pp (n=10) | 0% | n/a | Building sample (n = 10) | matchup 48%, trend 33% | Oct 16 |
| 18 | Stuckey | Action Network | 85 | 39-44-2 | -12.7% | -2.1pp (n=28) | 7% | +0.54 pts | Building sample (n = 85) | matchup 27%, trend 18% | Oct 19 |
| 19 | Andy Lang | WagerTalk | 24 | 16-8-0 | +30.4% | -2.6pp (n=23) | 39% | n/a | Building sample (n = 24) | matchup 56%, trend 20% | Oct 13 |
| Not ranked yet | |||||||||||
| — | Iain MacMillan | Sports Illustrated | 3 | 1-1-1 | -1.6% | n/a | n/a | -0.50 pts | Building sample (n = 3) | numbers_model 50%, line_value 17% | Oct 12 |
| — | Javan Shouey | Pickswise | 1 | 1-0-0 | +73.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, line_value 33% | Sep 30 |
| — | Ethan Diamandas | Sportsbook Review | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, trend 33% | Oct 2 |
| — | Billy Ward | Action Network | 1 | 1-0-0 | +80.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, line_value 33% | Oct 10 |
| — | Sam McLoughlin | William Hill | 1 | 1-0-0 | +90.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | trend 50%, matchup 50% | Oct 12 |