Steam alerts

How to read this feed: each row is one detected steam event. UP means that side became more favored, DOWN less. The move is the average probability shift across the books that moved, in percentage points (on a spread, the price shift plus what the change in the number is worth, measured against one league-wide margin distribution, the same for every game); the threshold is 2pp inside a five-minute window. We poll every 60 seconds while NFL games are within a week, on moneylines and spreads. On a spread the size of a move is not its number of points but what those points are worth. Measured from 2,939 regular-season games, a half-point is worth about 4.8pp onto 3, about 2.2pp onto 6, about 2.8pp onto 7 and about 0.5pp from 8.5 to 9. That is what the margin table measures at that number, not a prediction of any one alert's size. A half-point onto 3, 6 or 7 clears the 2pp bar on its own; onto 4, 10 or 14 does not; most half-points away from the key numbers are not. A spread row shows the two numbers it moved between.

The public view runs two hours behind. It lists moves that settled more than two hours ago; a Pro account sees them live. See what Pro includes.