Experts vs the closing line

Ranked by price vs. the closing line, discounted for small samples. Records over a few dozen picks are mostly luck.

Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.

Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. Everyone with at least two priced picks is ranked by price CLV, discounted for small samples (the mean times n / (n + 30)), our own row included. An expert's status reads Building sample until there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; only then can their record change how much they move our number. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.

Experts and Consensus Edge ranked by sample-adjusted price closing-line value.
#ExpertOutletPicksW-L-PROI Price CLVBeat the closeLine valueStatusReasonsLast pick
1Andy SchoolerSporting Life32-1-0+33.3%+2.1pp (n=3)100%n/aBuilding sample (n = 3)trend 33%, other 33%Oct 7
2Jason LoganCovers149-5-0+7.7%+0.4pp (n=14)50%n/aBuilding sample (n = 14)matchup 33%, injury 21%Oct 19
3Jake OsgathorpeSporting Life22-0-0+95.2%+1.2pp (n=2)100%n/aBuilding sample (n = 2)trend 33%, matchup 33%Oct 12
4Chris VasileCovers3220-12-0+26.0%-0.4pp (n=21)43%n/aBuilding sample (n = 32)matchup 47%, trend 19%Oct 19
5Jon MetlerCovers20-2-0-100.0%-3.2pp (n=2)0%n/aBuilding sample (n = 2)matchup 40%, injury 40%Oct 20
6Vaughn DalzellNBC Sports21-1-0+1.0%-3.4pp (n=2)0%n/aBuilding sample (n = 2)matchup 50%, trend 50%Oct 7
7Peter DeweySports Illustrated117-4-0+13.0%-0.8pp (n=11)27%n/aBuilding sample (n = 11)matchup 35%, injury 19%Oct 20
8StuckeyAction Network83-5-0-20.6%-1.6pp (n=5)20%n/aBuilding sample (n = 8)matchup 33%, injury 21%Oct 18
9Mike SpectorSportsbook Review128-4-0+28.9%-1.2pp (n=12)17%n/aBuilding sample (n = 12)matchup 34%, trend 31%Oct 19
10Consensus Edge (graded calls)4024-16-0-4.5%-0.8pp (n=30)40%n/aBuilding sample (n = 30)n/aOct 10
11Danny HowardCovers109-1-0+32.0%-3.7pp (n=10)0%n/aBuilding sample (n = 10)matchup 48%, trend 33%Oct 16
12Andy LangWagerTalk2416-8-0+30.4%-2.6pp (n=23)39%n/aBuilding sample (n = 24)matchup 56%, trend 20%Oct 13
Not ranked yet
—Mark LammeyPickswise118-3-0+38.8%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 11)matchup 34%, trend 22%Oct 20
—Nick GriffithAction Network96-3-0+30.1%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 9)matchup 33%, injury 22%Oct 17
—Neil ParkerCovers44-0-0+96.1%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 4)matchup 36%, numbers_model 27%Oct 13
—Brad PowersCovers21-1-0-17.9%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 2)matchup 40%, trend 40%Oct 17
—Iain MacMillanSports Illustrated21-1-0-2.4%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 2)numbers_model 50%, line_value 25%Oct 12
—Javan ShoueyPickswise11-0-0+73.0%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 1)matchup 33%, line_value 33%Sep 30
—Ethan DiamandasSportsbook Review10-1-0-100.0%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 1)matchup 33%, trend 33%Oct 2
—Billy WardAction Network11-0-0+80.0%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 1)matchup 33%, line_value 33%Oct 10
—Sam McLoughlinWilliam Hill11-0-0+90.9%n/an/an/aBuilding sample (n = 1)trend 50%, matchup 50%Oct 12