Experts vs the closing line
Ranked by price vs. the closing line, discounted for small samples. Records over a few dozen picks are mostly luck.
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. Everyone with at least two priced picks is ranked by price CLV, discounted for small samples (the mean times n / (n + 30)), our own row included. An expert's status reads Building sample until there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; only then can their record change how much they move our number. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| # | Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Howard | Covers | 10 | 9-1-0 | +32.0% | -3.7pp (n=10) | 0% | n/a | Building sample (n = 10) | matchup 48%, trend 33% | Oct 16 |
| 2 | Andy Lang | WagerTalk | 24 | 16-8-0 | +30.4% | -2.6pp (n=23) | 39% | n/a | Building sample (n = 24) | matchup 56%, trend 20% | Oct 13 |
| Not ranked yet | |||||||||||
| — | Ethan Diamandas | Sportsbook Review | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, trend 33% | Oct 2 |
| — | Billy Ward | Action Network | 1 | 1-0-0 | +80.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, line_value 33% | Oct 10 |
| — | Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 5 | 3-2-0 | +10.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | n/a | Aug 29 | |