Experts vs the closing line
Ranked by price vs. the closing line, discounted for small samples. Records over a few dozen picks are mostly luck.
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. Everyone with at least two priced picks is ranked by price CLV, discounted for small samples (the mean times n / (n + 30)), our own row included. An expert's status reads Building sample until there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; only then can their record change how much they move our number. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| # | Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 367 | 187-169-11 | +9.0% | +3.8pp (n=67) | 78% | n/a | Beating the close, clear of our target. | n/a | Oct 18 | |
| 2 | Jason Logan | Covers | 26 | 12-14-0 | -11.7% | -0.4pp (n=7) | 14% | +0.85 pts | Building sample (n = 26) | matchup 35%, trend 23% | Oct 18 |
| 3 | Chris Farley | Pickswise | 7 | 4-3-0 | +9.6% | -0.9pp (n=3) | 0% | +0.64 pts | Building sample (n = 7) | matchup 35%, numbers_model 25% | Oct 13 |
| 4 | Neil Parker | Covers | 9 | 3-6-0 | -41.3% | -1.0pp (n=3) | 0% | +0.22 pts | Building sample (n = 9) | numbers_model 43%, trend 33% | Oct 20 |
| 5 | Vaughn Dalzell | NBC Sports | 10 | 5-5-0 | -4.5% | -2.7pp (n=2) | 0% | +0.25 pts | Building sample (n = 10) | matchup 38%, trend 31% | Oct 20 |
| 6 | Mark Lammey | Pickswise | 36 | 20-14-2 | +8.8% | -2.3pp (n=9) | 33% | +0.24 pts | Building sample (n = 36) | matchup 37%, trend 31% | Oct 20 |
| Not ranked yet | |||||||||||
| — | Nick Griffith | Action Network | 11 | 11-0-0 | +81.3% | n/a | n/a | +0.18 pts | Building sample (n = 11) | matchup 28%, numbers_model 22% | Oct 19 |
| — | Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | 7 | 4-3-0 | +8.5% | n/a | n/a | +1.57 pts | Building sample (n = 7) | numbers_model 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 18 |
| — | Collin Wilson | Action Network | 6 | 6-0-0 | +90.9% | n/a | n/a | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 6) | matchup 40%, weather 27% | Oct 17 |
| — | Brad Powers | Covers | 6 | 4-2-0 | +32.4% | n/a | n/a | -0.38 pts | Building sample (n = 6) | matchup 28%, trend 24% | Oct 17 |
| — | Brandon Anderson | Action Network | 4 | 1-3-0 | -100.0% | n/a | n/a | +0.62 pts | Building sample (n = 4) | trend 33%, weather 22% | Oct 17 |
| — | Mike Spector | Sportsbook Review | 2 | 1-1-0 | -8.7% | n/a | n/a | +0.25 pts | Building sample (n = 2) | matchup 33%, numbers_model 33% | Oct 13 |
| — | Iain MacMillan | Sports Illustrated | 1 | 0-0-1 | +0.0% | n/a | n/a | -0.50 pts | Building sample (n = 1) | numbers_model 50%, matchup 50% | Oct 12 |
| — | Stuckey | Action Network | 1 | 1-0-0 | +95.2% | n/a | n/a | +3.00 pts | Building sample (n = 1) | injury 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 18 |