Model calibration audit

For every bucket of predicted probability, what did the model actually hit? A well-calibrated model has actual win rate ≈ predicted prob. A negative gap means the model is overconfident in that bucket (dangerous); positive gap means it's underpredicting (safe). Rows turn red when |gap| > 5pp AND N ≥ 10.

Calibration cohort by sport (click to filter):

All sports MLB N=2,748 NCAAF N=1,323 TENNIS_WTA N=746 TENNIS_ATP N=652 MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS N=518 NHL N=451 LALIGA N=274 AMERICANFOOTBALL_NFL N=271 SERIEA N=226 EPL N=224 LIGUE1 N=195 BUNDESLIGA N=179 UCL N=158 NFL_PRESEASON N=145 CRICKET_IPL N=27 NBA N=9

Combined "all sports" is rarely meaningful — sports differ in market efficiency, signal availability, and base rates. Use the chips to drill into a single sport. N<50 (red) means the calibration is brittle; N≥200 (green) is trustworthy.

Filter: window=90d · sport=epl

Overall: N = 224 · mean predicted 45.3% · actual win rate 35.7% · gap -9.6pp · Brier 0.232 · log-loss 0.652

Calibration by predicted-probability bucket.
Predicted-prob bucket	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap (actual − predicted)	Brier
<50%	133	37.0%	33.1%	-3.9pp	0.205
50-55%	33	52.2%	39.4%	-12.8pp	0.255
55-60%	32	57.2%	37.5%	-19.7pp	0.277
60-65%	14	62.1%	28.6%	-33.5pp	0.312
65-70%	12	67.2%	58.3%	-8.8pp	0.254

JSON feed · Model CLV · Methodology

Calibration is computed from the prediction_history table. Bucket edges are 5pp wide (50-55%, 55-60%, etc.) with widened tails (<50%, 80-90%, 90%+) where data is sparser. Negative gap is the dangerous direction — actual win rate below stated confidence.