Model CLV: aggregate audit

Closing-line-value audit of the platform's picks: the ones we recommended, and every market we priced. CLV = closing price − the price we took, raw implied on both sides. The model is not in that formula, which is what makes it a test rather than a restatement of our own opinion. Positive mean CLV means our picks beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

-0.02pp
Behind the close on average; the range still includes zero.
Mean closing-line value across 69 recommended picks with a closing line; the price moved our way on 40.6% of them. 95% range -0.8 to +0.8pp, 1.02pp short of our +1.00pp target.

Both prices are the best on the board at their moment, when we posted and at the last capture before kickoff: this measures whether the market came toward us after we posted, not any one book's close.

Since 5 October 2026 our model starts from the market's price, so calls are rarer. Earlier calls stay in this record.

-0.84pp
Not beating the close.
Every market we priced, recommended or not: 5,164 markets; the price did not move our way on 63.1% of them. 95% range -1.0 to -0.7pp, 1.84pp short of our +1.00pp target.

This is the model's raw number, before the selection gate, and the one the plan below is about.

Bar for selling picks +0.00pp Target +1.00pp
Window (by game date):
30 days 90 days All time Since 12 Sep fix
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: The close is the last price captured before kickoff, and a row is recomputed whenever a fresher close is captured. Buckets with N<30 are hidden. The Since 12 Sep fix window starts at the closing-line capture fix of 12 September 2026, the cohort the selling test is judged on. CLV compares the best price available when we posted the pick with the best price available at the last capture before kickoff. Both ends are best-of-board, and the close is captured across at least as many books as the board we post from, Pinnacle where it is quoted, so the comparison does not tilt in our favour.

Every market we priced, by sport and market

Every market we priced, by sport and market: model CLV per bucket.
Sport Market N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
MLB Spread 786 -0.95pp -0.85pp 34.2%
MLB Moneyline 777 -0.32pp -0.45pp 40.9%
WTA Tennis Moneyline 616 -0.50pp -0.36pp 41.4%
ATP Tennis Moneyline 534 -0.99pp -0.96pp 37.5%
MLB Over/Under 444 -0.40pp -0.47pp 40.1%
NCAAF Moneyline 365 -2.35pp -1.63pp 24.9%
UFC Moneyline 187 -1.46pp +0.21pp 51.9%
UFC Over/Under 131 -0.53pp -0.59pp 44.3%
NHL Spread 130 -0.77pp -0.50pp 37.7%
NFL Moneyline 91 -2.65pp -1.85pp 40.7%
La Liga Moneyline 87 -1.77pp -1.54pp 32.2%
NCAAF Spread 79 -0.82pp -0.25pp 12.7%
NHL Over/Under 76 -0.86pp -0.63pp 30.3%
NCAAF Over/Under 69 -0.63pp -0.46pp 10.1%
Serie A Moneyline 67 -1.91pp -1.98pp 26.9%
EPL Moneyline 65 +2.39pp† -0.68pp 44.6%
La Liga Over/Under 64 -0.85pp -1.52pp 34.4%
Ligue 1 Moneyline 60 +0.68pp -0.63pp 46.7%
Champions League Moneyline 54 -2.97pp -3.18pp 27.8%
Serie A Over/Under 49 -1.51pp -2.78pp 38.8%
Bundesliga Moneyline 48 +1.50pp -0.48pp 43.8%
EPL Over/Under 46 -2.21pp -2.53pp 30.4%
Ligue 1 Over/Under 44 -0.75pp +0.32pp 54.5%
La Liga Spread 36 -1.16pp -0.19pp 47.2%
Champions League Over/Under 33 +1.76pp +0.71pp 54.5%

† mean and median differ by 3pp or more: a few large moves drive this cell.

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

Cumulative mean CLV, every market we priced · N=5,164 · 24 Jul 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 · ends at -0.84pp

What we are doing about it

A number like the one above is worth little without the response to it, so here is ours, and the figure that will show whether it worked.

  1. Narrow to where we are least behind. CLV is not evenly distributed. Today the largest sample is MLB, 2,007 markets at -0.59pp, and the widest gap is NFL, -2.36pp on 110. Coverage follows the evidence rather than the calendar.
  2. Pull the model toward the market where it disagrees most. In the band where our probability departs furthest from the closing price, the market has been the better estimator. That is a calibration problem with a known direction, not a mystery.
  3. Fix the instrument before trusting it. Some of what this page measured was measurement error, found and corrected in September 2026. Numbers here predate and postdate those fixes; the trajectory above, by game date, is the honest view.

The test: mean CLV on the picks we recommend, non-negative at 95% confidence. Today, on this window: -0.02pp, range -0.8 to +0.8pp, on 69 picks. Does not clear it. Until it does we are not selling picks, and this page will keep saying so.

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.