Model CLV: aggregate audit

Closing-line-value audit of the platform's picks: the ones we recommended, and every market we priced. CLV = closing price − the price we took, raw implied on both sides. The model is not in that formula, which is what makes it a test rather than a restatement of our own opinion. Positive mean CLV means our picks beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

+1.44pp
Beating the close. Above our target, on a sample too small to call that settled.
Mean closing-line value across 241 recommended picks with a closing line; the price moved our way on 51.9% of them. 95% range +0.6 to +2.3pp.

Both prices are the best on the board at their moment, when we posted and at the last capture before kickoff: this measures whether the market came toward us after we posted, not any one book's close.

Since 5 October 2026 our model starts from the market's price, so calls are rarer. Earlier calls stay in this record.

-0.56pp
Not beating the close.
Every market we priced, recommended or not: 9,576 markets; the price did not move our way on 60.8% of them. 95% range -0.7 to -0.5pp, 1.56pp short of our +1.00pp target.

This is the model's raw number, before the selection gate, and the one the plan below is about.

Bar for selling picks +0.00pp Target +1.00pp
Window (by game date):
30 days 90 days All time Since 12 Sep fix
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: The close is the last price captured before kickoff, and a row is recomputed whenever a fresher close is captured. Buckets with N<30 are hidden. The Since 12 Sep fix window starts at the closing-line capture fix of 12 September 2026, the cohort the selling test is judged on. CLV compares the best price available when we posted the pick with the best price available at the last capture before kickoff. Both ends are best-of-board, and the close is captured across at least as many books as the board we post from, Pinnacle where it is quoted, so the comparison does not tilt in our favour.

Every market we priced, by sport and market

Every market we priced, by sport and market: model CLV per bucket.
Sport Market N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
MLB Moneyline 2,097 -0.62pp -0.57pp 37.7%
MLB Spread 1,183 -0.60pp -0.62pp 38.5%
WTA Tennis Moneyline 1,089 -0.53pp -0.38pp 38.6%
ATP Tennis Moneyline 1,049 -0.72pp -0.52pp 40.3%
MLB Over/Under 696 +0.13pp +0.00pp 47.4%
UFC Moneyline 438 -1.15pp +0.00pp 48.2%
NCAAF Moneyline 365 -2.35pp -1.63pp 24.9%
NHL Moneyline 270 -0.47pp -0.19pp 37.8%
NBA Moneyline 232 -0.55pp +0.00pp 45.7%
NHL Spread 194 +0.05pp -0.17pp 41.2%
La Liga Moneyline 186 -2.03pp -1.99pp 31.7%
Serie A Moneyline 155 +0.15pp -1.54pp 32.9%
EPL Moneyline 144 +0.77pp -0.81pp 43.1%
UFC Over/Under 143 -0.68pp -0.81pp 42.0%
NHL Over/Under 125 +1.06pp +0.24pp 50.4%
Bundesliga Moneyline 119 +1.62pp -0.61pp 47.1%
NFL Moneyline 91 -2.65pp -1.85pp 40.7%
NCAAF Spread 79 -0.82pp -0.25pp 12.7%
Champions League Moneyline 75 +2.21pp† -2.42pp 38.7%
NCAAB Moneyline 73 +1.30pp +0.63pp 58.9%
Ligue 1 Moneyline 71 -1.12pp -1.34pp 43.7%
NCAAF Over/Under 69 -0.63pp -0.46pp 10.1%
La Liga Over/Under 64 -0.85pp -1.52pp 34.4%
EPL Over/Under 63 -1.29pp -1.81pp 38.1%
Serie A Over/Under 58 -1.65pp -2.27pp 32.8%
Ligue 1 Over/Under 45 -0.85pp +0.22pp 53.3%
IPL Cricket Moneyline 41 -0.60pp +0.00pp 41.5%
Bundesliga Over/Under 40 +2.29pp +0.72pp 60.0%
EPL Spread 38 -0.60pp -0.94pp 31.6%
La Liga Spread 37 -1.20pp -0.39pp 45.9%
Champions League Over/Under 34 +1.47pp +0.56pp 52.9%

† mean and median differ by 3pp or more: a few large moves drive this cell.

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

Cumulative mean CLV, every market we priced · N=9,576 · 17 Mar 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 · ends at -0.56pp

What we are doing about it

A number like the one above is worth little without the response to it, so here is ours, and the figure that will show whether it worked.

  1. Narrow to where we are least behind. CLV is not evenly distributed. Today the largest sample is MLB, 3,976 markets at -0.48pp, and the widest gap is NFL, -2.36pp on 110. Coverage follows the evidence rather than the calendar.
  2. Pull the model toward the market where it disagrees most. In the band where our probability departs furthest from the closing price, the market has been the better estimator. That is a calibration problem with a known direction, not a mystery.
  3. Fix the instrument before trusting it. Some of what this page measured was measurement error, found and corrected in September 2026. Numbers here predate and postdate those fixes; the trajectory above, by game date, is the honest view.

The test: mean CLV on the picks we recommend, non-negative at 95% confidence. Today, on this window: +1.44pp, range +0.6 to +2.3pp, on 241 picks. Clears the bar. Declaring the record open is a decision we make in the open, with the reason stated here, not a switch this page flips.

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.